
A lot of people of had it up to here with Vista and that's not just consumers, the ones who actually buy the computers running Vista, but also the very manufacturers themselves. From the blogo-sphere to the main street press, people are are now beginning to report on a skunk works project by computer giant HP to explore the idea of developing it's own Linux based OS, one that would allow it to completely bypass Windows Vista altogether. HP's OS would be designed primarily for home users and would be much simpler to use than any of the other existing Linux distro's, including that of the most popular, Ubuntu.
The idea of HP developing their own OS poses more than a mere threat to Windows itself - it also poses a direct threat to Apple's OS X! The question is: could HP, if it ever decides develop their own alternative OS, actually become a credible threat to either Windows or the Mac, and, if so, is there anything that Microsoft or Apple could do to nullify the effect that any new OS might incur?
Electronista reports that:
"HP is exploring development of its own Linux variant designed just for the home, according to insiders speaking with BusinessWeek. The software would be simpler than most Linux distributions and would be specifically designed to avoid a dependence on Microsoft's Windows operating systems on consumer systems, which have been forced to move to Vista despite a poor reaction to the platform. Details of the operating system are otherwise unknown.
The project is described as private and hasn't been officially scheduled; nonetheless, the project is said to have been deliberately formed as a "Skunk Works" project that maintains a low profile. The company's CTO for its PC group, Phil McKinney, acknowledges that staffers have discussed the possibility but officially maintains that the company prefers to customize Windows apps rather than create its own platform."
Even though HP, on one hand, thinks that it doesn't make much sense to justify the incredible expense of creating another new OS, they have, none-the-less, created a skunk works project to look into the possibility doing just that, and one that would strengthen it's hand against Apple, who's increasingly popular OS X has been making inroads against Windows for the past several years now.
The big question is, naturally, can anyone really create a new OS, at this late stage in the game, that could successfully compete against Windows and the Mac? I'm not sure, and neither is HP, which is why, at this point, they are only just considering the possibility.
As great as any OS might be, what's most crucial to an OS success is the software base that runs on it. Without it, no OS, no matter how great it was, would still just end up becoming worthless. Lots of great technology, in the past, has been developed for other great platforms, but all, in the end, ended up dying an ignominious death because of the lack of such software. Sony's Betamax and Toshiba's HD movies players, for instance, come to mind. It's a catch 22 situation for any new OS. To get the apps, you need significant market share - to get significant market share - you need the apps!
Its true, of course, that HP also just happens to have the largest market share of computers sold, but is it's market share big enough to justify developers flocking to create apps for it in significant numbers? Somehow I doubt it. People buy HP computers in order to run the tons of great software available, but it's all on Windows! Without all of that software, HP's share of the market would drop like a rock in no time flat!
I can see HP and other manufacturers such as Dell, Lenovo, etc., all working in common on such a project, but will HP, all on it's own, be willing to expend all of the necessary resources, including huge sums of money, for an OS that any of it's competitor's could easily access under the Linux open source common license? Why should HP develop a great Linux distro that it's competitors spent nothing on, and one that they could all use just as well as HP?
Of course, this doesn't mean that HP couldn't do it, but just that it's not going to be easy, no way, not by a long shot! The Linux community has been trying it's best to one-up OS X by borrowing it's animated eye candy and other such features, but they been having difficulties because they simply don't have the huge manpower, money and other resources necessary in order to create such an easy and perfectly polished OS like that of Windows or OS X. HP does, however, have all of those same resources which it could easily use to finally create what the rest of the open source community couldn't do because of the lack of those same resources.
Again, the really big problem, that I see for HP, however, in developing an entirely new OS built on Linux, is that under it's common licenses, HP couldn't really make any money from it, so why even bother spending all of that serious cash and manpower, when under the open source model all of HP's competitor's could use everything HP developed for free without having to contribute even a single penny?
One advantage, on the other hand, of using Linux is that it has most of the necessary infrastructure already in place to make it easy and quick for HP to develop a new OS rather than having to develop a new OS completely on it's own. Developing a new OS from scratch would not only be more expensive from HP's point of view, but a hell of a lot more difficult and risky as well.
HP has shown with it's Touch Smart and Voodoo laptops that it can design and build innovative computers that are equally on par with anything that Apple can deliver, except, of course, on the OS side. It is here that HP and other companies have little control and they are forced to put up with inferior software on their superior hardware, which has got to irritate the hell out of them.
As for HP, I love their hardware. Their products are imaginative and of very high quality and just like Apple, HP incorporates a lot of nice little touch's that make their products especially desirable and I have no doubt that same quality and thoughtfulness would also be reflected in any new OS that HP might like to undertake to develop, but it would take years.
I'm not sure about Microsoft, but as far as combating any new OS from HP, Apple could deliver a fatal blow to such a new OS initiative by simply licensing OS X to other companies, HP included, which would not only possibly kill off any new OS, but the old OS of Windows at the same time!
The only other thing that Apple could do to thwart HP's possible new OS venture is by doing what they have been doing successfully all along now with Windows - by continuing to offer vastly more innovation and cool new features.
We don't even know yet if HP will, or will not, create a new OS to rival that of Windows or the Mac. All we do know, for sure, is that most skunk work projects never really end up leaving the lab and that regardless of whatever HP does, or doesn't do, you can bet your last roll of gum drops that neither Microsoft or Apple is going sit down without putting up a good fight to thwart HP at every step of the way.
And that's my 2 cents 4 this Monday, September 15, 2008.
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